High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
India has expressed concerns over the potential humanitarian consequences of the Trump administration's new restrictions on the H1B visa program, particularly the disruption to families. The government hopes the US authorities will address these issues.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday upped India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.5 per cent, citing lower crude prices, monetary easing and normal monsoon, and said the ongoing geopolitical tensions are unlikely to put a "significant pressure" on the rupee or inflation.
Top carmakers led by Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and Kia India on Saturday reported record sales in the domestic market riding on festive demand boosted by GST rate cut. Other manufacturers such as Skoda Auto India and Toyota Kirloskar Motor also posted impressive growth in sales in October.
Indian economy to grow at 6.3-6.8 pc in FY26, against 6.4 pc in FY25
To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
'When the BJP wanted the election to focus on 'ghuspathiya' and promises that look like pies in the sky, we forced them to talk about jobs, giving free 125 units of power, and addressing women's indebtedness.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said the world is facing "profound imbalances" in trade and energy security, and is undergoing a structural transformation, with India standing out as a 'stabilising force' that can withstand external shocks.
'Immigrants have always been America's greatest strength, building prosperity, breakthroughs, and communities that enrich us all. Instead of embracing that strength, Trump is clamping down on every form of immigration, tearing families apart, destabilising businesses, and weakening our economy'
Despite a strong 7.8 per cent growth in the first quarter, the Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current financial year as the impact of US tariffs on Indian exports will reduce prospects, particularly in the second half, ADB said on Tuesday.
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
'If the RJD loses it would be out of power for nearly 25 years. Meanwhile, the JD-U will have survival issues if it gets less number of seats.'
India should simultaneously prioritise domestic exploration and production of more oil and gas in the country, and ensure we retain diversified suppliers for imports, points out former foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will be guided by macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and quarterly earnings from IT major TCS this week, analysts said. Stock markets would also be tracking trading activity of foreign investors who remained net sellers of Indian equities in September.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday revised upward its growth estimates for the current fiscal year to 6.8 per cent and lowered its inflation projection to 2.6 per cent based on an above-normal monsoon and the rationalisation of GST rates.
'It takes time and the experience of a few market cycles to develop awareness about one's true risk appetite.'
Priti Kinnar, a transgender social worker, is set to contest the Bihar assembly elections from Bhorey seat on a Jan Suraaj ticket, challenging the incumbent Education Minister. Her entry into politics has sparked mixed reactions, with some seeing it as a potential boost for the transgender community and others questioning its impact on the election outcome.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. His meeting with President Xi Jinping is significant given global economic concerns.
'If the near-term economic pain is absorbed more by those who have the ability and the financial strength to do so, then small and medium enterprises in downstream industries will emerge stronger from the trade imbroglio.'
One key development is the direct cargo connection between Chennai and Vladivostok, a crucial Russian port on the Northern Sea Route.
Google plans to invest $15 billion over the next five years in setting an artificial intelligence hub in Visakhapatnam, a senior official of the company said on Tuesday.
The BRICS nations have expressed concern over the proliferation of trade-restrictive actions in the form of 'indiscriminate rising' of tariffs, particularly measures used as a means of 'coercion', cautioning that such practices risk marginalising the Global South countries.
Nasscom on Monday said the US clarification that the H-1B visa fee hike will not affect current visa holders and will apply as a one-time fee only to fresh petitions has helped address the immediate ambiguity surrounding eligibility and timelines.
The US Chamber of Commerce has filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration's decision to impose a USD 100,000 fee on new H-1B visa petitions, arguing it harms American innovation and competitiveness.
As a protege of Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is expected to scale bilateral ties much higher. Trade and investment shall grow. People-to-people contacts shall be scaled up, points out Dr Rajaram Panda.
'Other sectors that manage the savings pools of Indians are giving tough competition to life insurance companies.'
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday said it is important for India and China to work together to bring stability to the world economic order as he asserted that New Delhi is ready to advance bilateral ties from a strategic and long-term perspective based on mutual respect, mutual interest and mutual sensitivity.
Passenger vehicle retail sales shot up 35 per cent year-on-year during the nine-day Navratri period this year, helping the overall registrations last month grow 6 per cent, as offtakes remained muted in the first 21 days of the month and only took off after the roll-out of new GST rates on September 22, dealer' body FADA said on Tuesday.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
'You are a guest in the US. It's not your home, you're a guest. If they don't feel comfortable, you have to step out.'
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
The Bloomberg report suggests that this backchannel communication from President Xi has laid the groundwork for a broader thaw in relations. This overture has since translated into a series of tangible diplomatic actions leading up to the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit.
You can't be the second-most expensive market in the world and deliver just 10 per cent EPS growth, points out Akash Prakash.
The crisis may not be as visible this time, but the stakes are just as high, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
'Nor would it have serious implications in India's relations with Saudi Arabia that stand on their own and have improved significantly in recent times, including in defence and strategic affairs.'
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav likened Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to an infiltrator, saying he is from Uttarakhand and should be sent back to the state. Yadav also criticized the BJP's governance and alleged injustices against Dalits and backward communities.
'There are times when India should stand up without hesitation and voice its indignation over the US' pressure tactic. This is one such moment,' asserts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The heat shield technology for re-entry vehicles was first mastered in DRDO for the Agni missile.' 'This is why the Americans were so opposed to Agni in the 1980s, unlike other missiles -- it was a re-entry vehicle.'
'Indian markets may underperform global peers for the next two quarters.' 'But beyond that, India should catch up and resume its long-term growth path.'
The US remains the largest market for IT outsourcing, and for Indian giants TCS, Infosys and Wipro, it contributes around 40 per cent of their top line.
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